Misplaced Belief

We all plan for success. We really do. It’s natural and it’s part of maintaining a positive attitude in the face of project teams and upper management. If we execute the plan exactly, we should get the result exactly as we planned, right?. But as anyone with any real experience will tell you, no plan truly survives first contact with reality. 

Among the common lies we tell ourselves is that milestones matter. Yes it’s true they measure progress but they aren’t tasks you assign with due dates, they are simply a sign on the road which makes a whooshing sound as you sail on past. And along with milestones is the belief you’ll know what done is when you get done. The problem with this lie is what’s done for you isn’t done for your team. And upper management will have a different impression of what done looks like contrary to your view.

Then there is the belief that activity is the same thing as progress, and that everyone measures progress the same. Unfortunately spending hours on something doesn’t always mean progress is being made. This becomes even more foolish when the KPIs used don’t align with the actual work. Thus upper management is looking at hours and dollars spent against a plan and assumes progress is being made, while the engineers in the field are spending the budget on trying to resolve an unforeseen design challenge and not accomplishing a lot overall.

Finally there is the belief things will be easy.  The plan is made; it looks good on paper. This leads to complacency and the feeling there doesn’t need to be a Plan B. And if you were to make a Plan B, or C, or D, you are signaling to management your plan might fail, and your job as a leader is to plan for success.

So with this overconfidence in our ability to plan, the confusion of what progress means and how it’s measured, and lack of contingencies, we overlook the real warning signs of problems within our projects. And these signs are seldom loud for they are the quiet signals calling from the shadows of denial.

Why Metrics Don’t Catch This Early

Metrics solely offer a snapshot of a situation, lacking actionable insights and context. They are influenced by external factors and are inherently historical, serving as a lagging indicator rather than a predictive measure. Metrics primarily indicate the current state of affairs relative to a predetermined plan, disregarding the underlying causes. Consequently, teams that prioritize metrics may inadvertently focus on the wrong issues. For instance, while release delivery may be lagging behind projected targets, it does not pinpoint the development challenges that are causing the delay.

Additionally, metrics can be misleading when they measure the wrong variables. Vanity metrics, which may seem impressive to management, don’t actually offer any valuable insights. Misattributed metrics incorrectly link performance to actions. Ambiguous metrics lack clear definitions across teams. All lead to confusion and uncertainty about their true significance.

The most perilous type of metric status is “On Track.” This designation often indicates a reluctance to confront reality and be the first to acknowledge that things are deviating from plan. In such situations, nothing proceeds as expected. This deviation typically stems from the sanitization, negotiation, and carefully crafted narrative of metrics, which aim to present a false sense of “On Track” progress while not sharing the whole story. By the time things turn red, the decisions that caused it are already months old.

The Real Early Warning Signs

In my experience, the early warning signs of impending derailment are not when the schedule begins to unravel or when management demands overtime. Rather, it is the subtle behavioral changes that quietly indicate that something is amiss. 

The most prominent example of this is meetings held solely for theatrical purposes. These meetings exist to provide the illusion of progress to management. On the one hand, they are an attempt to pressure individuals to make necessary decisions. On the other hand, if decisions aren’t being made, we should have a meeting about that.

These meetings often leave us feeling confused and uncertain. The language is vague, and the commitments are unclear. People are hesitant to make any promises because they’re not sure what’s truly happening. It’s like a bunch of “we think” and “that might be okay, but let me get back to you” statements. Additionally, there’s the vague language of progress: “I did this”, or “I did that”. Necessary work, but nothing tied to a milestone. Nothing showing any real progress.  

Have you ever noticed how people subconsciously step up when they sense something’s amiss? They take on more responsibilities, attempting to propel things forward, even if they lack a complete understanding of the situation. And guess what? Others perceive this and reciprocate the same behavior. It’s like to an endless cycle of heroic endeavors, where everyone rushes ahead without a clear plan or a well-communicated message. When individuals act without clarity or focus, claiming their actions as progress, it suggests an underlying issue with the project.

Why Teams Don’t See It In Themselves 

Teams, just like individuals, often overlook their own shortcomings. Their close proximity to the problems hinder their ability to recognize them. Similarly, teams are frequently preoccupied with their tasks, preventing them from seeing when things are beginning to deteriorate. This proximity bias prevents the identification of issues until it’s too late.

In addition to being too close to the problem, team members become emotionally invested in the project. Combined, these lead to desensitization to issues. Working to the plan and admitting problems challenges their self-perception, causing personal distress.  

And let’s not forget the system itself. Companies love to spread optimism. Some even go so far as to block bad news from reaching the top by filtering messages at different levels of management to avoid upsetting anyone. So, through a whole bunch of bureaucracy, reassurances that everything’s fine are actually rewarded.

Those emotional invested in the work have troubles seeing the problems.

What Leaders Can Do Now

Sadly leaders are often the source of the distortion. People generally don’t like reporting bad news. They’ll paint a picture of what they think you want to hear and what will keep them from getting in trouble. As such, the messages are filtered because that’s the culture you’ve allowed to exist. 

A good leader will cut through the optimism even inviting dissenting opinions. And a good leader will know when someone is dancing around an uncomfortable topic. In extreme cases, a good leader holds a skip level from those doing the work and reporting on the status to get a view from the ground.

Leaders should also ask and understand the risks involved in the program. This goes beyond just schedule delays and budget overruns. It also includes decisions that need to be made, additional scope that needs to be added outside the original plan, and the realization that the original plan wasn’t as good as it seemed at first.

And here’s the most important thing: leaders need to clearly define what progress means. It’s not just about counting hours and reaching milestones. It’s avoiding the trap of thinking things are moving forward just because there’s activity. And the people who know best what progress is are the ones doing the work, not high-level managers working from a plan. 

Consider measuring drawing releases. Sure that’s what management is concerned with and when it comes to payments, that’s what the customer is after. Yet there is so much that goes on behind the scenes in order for a drawing to be complete.  There is the coordination with manufacturing. There’s materials, hardware, analysis and all sorts of checks needed just to release one drawing. Real progress measures those internal progress markers, not just the drawing releases.

Leaders who can spot the signs that a project is struggling can step in and fix things before it’s too late.

In Closing

No project ever goes exactly as planned; that’s simply not how it works. I’ve never witnessed a program run smoothly per the original plan. There’s always something that causes disruption. The key is to pay attention to the team’s behaviors before the metrics begin to change. That’s when you can gauge whether things are headed in the right direction or not. Any organizations that can accept and address these issues can plan and resolve the problems.